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Return Expectations

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Key themes from reporting season, and what's next

Earnings season displayed green shoots in consumer spending, signs of China's economic malaise, and higher interest rates having a very different impact across companies. Here are the winners and losers.

The bank is still a terrible place to put your money

With the RBA having lifted interest rates by 4.25% over 18 months, many investors now see cash as an attractive investment option. That ignores the silent tax of inflation, which makes other assets better investment alternatives.

The accounting tricks that ASX companies play

It's ASX reporting season and sometimes all isn't what it seems in a company's financial accounts. Here's a guide on what to look out for when analysing financial statements to help you spot potential red flags.

Confession season is upon us: What’s next for equity markets

Companies tend to pre-position weak results ahead of 30 June, leading to earnings downgrades. The next two months will be critical for investors as a shift from ‘great expectations’ to ‘clear explanations’ gets underway.

Why starting points matter

There have been few times in the past 140 years when investors were willing to pay for more than 30 years’ worth of earnings, yet here we are around 40. This starting point does not augur well for future returns.

What do you expect from your portfolio today?

Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.

Is crypto a currency or a collectible?

Cryptocurrencies have created the perfect recipe to encourage speculation with the most important ingredient for a bubble to form being something new and shiny to attract investor attention. What's it really worth?

Great investment expectations are deluded

Many investors are deluding themselves expecting high returns without taking risks, and it has poor consequences for retirement planning and setting goals. It pays to be more realistic.

Strangers to themselves in retirement

Preferences revealed by actual investing behaviour are often different to preferences stated in surveys. Financial planners and super funds should use newer analyses that helps understand the discrepancies.

Share investors should protect the downside

Glenn Rushton is the trainer of Australia's newest world champion, boxer Jeff Horn. He's also a fund manager and he warns retirees not to forget the lessons of the GFC where even diversified holdings of blue chips suffered.

Introduction to the Market Monitor

Cuffelinks has added a new monthly feature, the 'Market Monitor', a review of economic conditions in major global markets plus an estimate of long term value across a wide range of asset classes.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

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