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21 January 2025
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US rate cuts, low starting valuations and an uptick in global capex are just some of the tailwinds behind emerging markets. A value approach can help investors grasp growth opportunities without overstretching.
Market consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates well ahead of the RBA. The latest data has cast doubt on this, raising the prospect of an earlier RBA cut to prop up a faltering economy.
Fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller gave a much-publicised interview at the 2023 Sohn Conference in the US last week. In this extract, he warns about the asset bubble the US Fed has created and his dire expectations.
Despite the attention on Bitcoin, gold outperformed almost every asset class in AUD terms in 2022. Gold traditionally performs inversely to the US dollar, which may have topped out after a multi-year bull run.
The Federal Reserve rate hikes will crunch demand from businesses and consumers in the US. But their greatest impact will be on countries outside America that will be starved of capital when they need it most.
Now we're captivated by inflation and higher rates but only a year ago, investors were certain of the supremacy of US companies, the benign nature of inflation and the remoteness of tighter monetary policy.
The Fed has finally signalled its intention to control inflation by reducing demand, and investors must become less comfortable with their financial prospects. Investing has changed and the consequences are serious.
In 2021, the gold price failed to sustain its strong rise since 2018, although it recovered after early losses. But where does gold sit in a world of inflation, rising rates and a competitor like Bitcoin?
In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?
It's tempting to focus on the negatives of the pandemic, the US election, the China/US cold war and inequality. But technology is delivering benefits that even wealthy people in the past could not have imagined.
It is always easier to see the challenges and risks while underestimating ingenuity and positive possibilities. It's likely to be the case this time, too, as long as we move quickly to open economies.
Are analysts who repeatedly issue warnings that do not come true crying wolf about an imaginary risk of inflation? The problem is governments may become addicted to imprudent deficit spending.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.