Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 587

Taking advantage of the property cycle

In our view, the commercial property market cycle includes four phases:

Peak: This phase features strong economic growth, rising property prices, and high investor confidence. Demand accelerates and vacancy rates drop well below normal levels. However, it can also lead to overvalued assets as sentiment moves ahead of underlying property performance and prices reach their zenith. Interest rates may also start to rise in this phase as the RBA seeks to take some ‘heat’ out of the economy.

Slowdown: In this phase, market dynamics shift, leading to weaker demand and softening prices. Construction, which typically picks up in the expansion phase, starts to create an oversupply and vacancy rates increase. Interest rates continue to rise, impacting jobs growth and slowing the economy. Sentiment worsens, perpetuating falling prices.

Trough: Characterised by low investor confidence and sometimes widespread despondency, this phase sees prices hitting their lowest point. However, it can also present opportunities for investors to buy undervalued assets at attractive prices. Towards the end of this phase, rate cuts often stimulate activity and lay the foundation for asset appreciation.

Expansion: During this phase, economic and financial conditions improve, boosting investor confidence and supporting asset prices. This is typically the longest phase, underpinned by moderate growth rather than the sentiment-driven extremes of the market peak and trough.

Property market cycles repeat over time, but each one is unique. This is because the intensity and duration of a cycle depends on a multitude of factors such as macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and unexpected occurrences like natural disasters or global pandemics. Sectors within a market and even different locations can be at different phases of the cycle at the same point in time.

Now that we have the basics covered, let’s take a look at the current property market.

The macro landscape

As mentioned above, macroeconomic conditions play a big role in property cycles. Recently, we’ve seen a significant increase in interest rates – 425 basis points in 18 months, which has significantly impacted commercial property prices. However, many believe that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. Other countries such as the US, Canada, New Zealand, and several across Europe, have already started lowering rates.

Australia’s inflation cycle took hold around six months later than peer markets and rate cuts are also expected to commence a bit later (around early next year). Cromwell expects lower interest rates will boost market confidence, stimulate transaction activity and support property prices.

Property pricing

We’re starting to see signs that property prices may be stabilising. The pace of capitalisation (cap) rate expansion (a driver of declining property values) is slowing for retail and industrial properties, an indication that the cycle may be turning for these sectors. It is important to note that because the valuation cycle lags, waiting until market valuation cap rates have started to compress means the best buying (i.e. the bottom of the cycle) has actually already passed you by.

For office properties, cap rate expansion is yet to slow but should follow the example of retail and industrial, in part supported by the emerging cap rate differential to the other sectors, which will boost the relative attractiveness of office investment. Increased transaction activity is another sign that the market cycle might be turning.

Office fundamentals

While the macroeconomic and capital cycles appear to be becoming more favourable, they would be of little consequence if office market fundamentals were too far out of sync. Despite some challenges, like high vacancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne, there are still reasons for investors to be optimistic about the office market.

Firstly, rents are at cyclical lows, similar to the levels seen after the early 90s office market blowup. With rents at low levels, occupiers aren’t under financial pressure to reduce their space or avoid expanding if they’re growing. This also means that cutting office space or rent isn’t the first option for saving costs. Companies understand that losing staff or having lower productivity due to a poor work environment is a bigger risk to their profits.

The other cyclical element of office fundamentals is the development pipeline (i.e. supply risk). This is relatively small, with the amount of national CBD stock expected to grow by only 0.9% per year from 2024 to 20281, compared to the 20-year average of 1.6% per year2. It’s not practical to build new offices unless they are already under construction or part of an infrastructure project, due to low rents and high construction costs affecting profitability.

It’s unlikely this dynamic will be resolved any time soon, with construction cost inflation expected to remain elevated3 and state infrastructure pipelines set to continue outcompeting for scarce resources and labour for at least several years. The lack of new development is good for the performance of existing buildings, helping to balance supply and demand and support rental growth.

Commercial property asset value growth index

The long-term trend

Over the past 40 years, investing in Australian office, industrial, and retail properties has generally paid off, with property values growing steadily despite facing a number of downturns and crises. While looking at a shorter timeframe will accentuate cyclical ups and downs, the market has shown a long-term upward trend.

Adopting a long-term approach when investing in property means investors can benefit from this steady growth. This approach helps avoid the stress of predicting market movements. Sticking to a disciplined, long-term strategy based on solid fundamentals can help investors navigate market cycles, reduce risk, and build wealth over time.

Getting in on the ground floor

It’s hard to know exactly when any market will peak or bottom out, but there are signs that can give clues about the general position of the commercial property cycle – whether it’s falling, stabilising, rising, or peaking.

With rate cuts expected in 2025, financial markets believe the overall economic cycle is close to turning. Similar signs are appearing in commercial property, with slower cap rate expansion in some sectors and increased transaction activity. For office spaces, very low rents and limited supply are reasons for optimism and present a good buying opportunity.

For investors who have the courage and capital to buy now, the benefits can be significant. Attractive prices are available, with buyers able to take advantage of distressed sales and the gap between market fundamentals and sentiment. While choosing the right properties is still crucial for investment returns, getting in early and riding the market upswing can provide a strong advantage for investors. Those who have been patient and held onto their investments through this stage of the cycle are also likely to benefit.

 

1. Source: Cromwell (Jun-24)
2. Source: Cromwell analysis of JLL data (Jun-24)
3. Source: International construction market survey 2024 (Turner & Townsend)

 

Colin Mackay is a Research and Investment Strategy Manager for Cromwell Property Group. Cromwell Funds Management is a sponsor of Firstlinks. This article is not intended to provide investment or financial advice or to act as any sort of offer or disclosure document. It has been prepared without taking into account any investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Any potential investor should make their own independent enquiries, and talk to their professional advisers, before making investment decisions.

For more articles and papers from Cromwell, please click here.

 

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

Latest Updates

Investing

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

Investment strategies

A closer look at defensive assets for turbulent times

After the recent market slump, it's a good time to brush up on the defensive asset classes – what they are, why hold them, and how they can both deliver on your goals and increase the reliability of your desired outcomes.

Financial planning

Are lifetime income streams the answer or just the easy way out?

Lately, there's been a push by Government for lifetime income streams as a solution to retirement income challenges. We run the numbers on these products to see whether they deliver on what they promise.

Shares

Is it time to buy the Big Four banks?

The stellar run of the major ASX banks last year left many investors scratching their heads. After a recent share price pullback, has value emerged in these banks, or is it best to steer clear of them?

Investment strategies

The useful role that subordinated debt can play in your portfolio

If you’re struggling to replace the hybrid exposure in your portfolio, you’re not alone. Subordinated debt is an option, and here is a guide on what it is and how it can fit into your investment mix.

Shares

Europe is back and small caps there offer significant opportunities

Trump’s moves on tariffs, defence, and Ukraine, have awoken European Governments after a decade of lethargy. European small cap manager, Alantra Asset Management, says it could herald a new era for the continent.

Shares

Lessons from the rise and fall of founder-led companies

Founder-led companies often attract investors due to leaders' personal stakes and long-term vision. But founder presence alone does not guarantee success, and the challenge is to identify which ones will succeed in the long term.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.