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Market Cycles

1-12 out of 39 results.

The far-flung past as prologue

The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.

From stockmarket boom to stockpicker’s opportunity

Given the last decade delivered phenomenal stockmarket returns, investors should expect the next decade to prove more challenging. However, 'value' stocks are cheap, providing compelling opportunities for contrarian investors.

Five strategies to match your investing to your behaviour

Common investor habits are selling when the market falls, worrying about others, a fear of running out of money and losing patience with a fund. Here are strategies and investments to manage these foibles.

The companies well placed to weather an economic storm

With heightened uncertainty and the market near record highs, it's important to focus on companies that are largely insulated from unpredictable macroeconomic risks. CSL and Corporate Travel Management fit the bill.

Passive investing has risks too

Last year was rough for investors, especially where equity and bond portfolios were not as diversified as they thought. Spreading the risk sounds simple but watch that funds are not all doing the same thing.

The growth outperformance myth

There's a common belief that the outperformance of 'growth investing' over 'value investing' since the GFC is simply due to the fall in longer-term interest rates, but is this really the case? The answer may surprise you.

Beware the hit to earnings in 2023

Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.

Hold fire on your fund manager over short-term declines

Even if you possess godlike skills, you can’t avoid big drawdowns. The lesson for investors is they need to back the long-term track record of their fund manager through the volatility to outperform in their portfolios.

Forget picking the bottom and focus on value

Rather than futile attempts to pick the bottom of the market, it's better to focus on improved valuations in quality companies and wait for the recovery in their businesses. But there are also problems to avoid.

Bigger fall, bigger bounce: small caps into and out of recessions

Smaller listed companies tend to fall first and furthest when an economic downturn hits but they recover the strongest. Here are three reasons why small caps may see strong returns after the recovery takes hold.

The paradox of investment cycles

Now we're captivated by inflation and higher rates but only a year ago, investors were certain of the supremacy of US companies, the benign nature of inflation and the remoteness of tighter monetary policy.

Bear markets don't go paw-in-paw with recessions

In the 12 US recessions since WWII, the S&P500 index has contracted from peak to trough by a median of 24%. We were almost there in June 2022 but trying to time the bottom of the market can be a costly strategy.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Meg on SMSFs: Clearing up confusion on the $3 million super tax

There seems to be more confusion than clarity about the mechanics of how the new $3 million super tax is supposed to work. Here is an attempt to answer some of the questions from my previous work on the issue. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 566 with weekend update

Here are 10 rules for staying happy and sharp as we age, including socialise a lot, never retire, learn a demanding skill, practice gratitude, play video games (specific ones), and be sure to reminisce.

  • 27 June 2024

Australian housing is twice as expensive as the US

A new report suggests Australian housing is twice as expensive as that of the US and UK on a price-to-income basis. It also reveals that it’s cheaper to live in New York than most of our capital cities.

The catalyst for a LICs rebound

The discounts on listed investment vehicles are at historically wide levels. There are lots of reasons given, including size and liquidity, yet there's a better explanation for the discounts, and why a rebound may be near.

The iron law of building wealth

The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.

How not to run out of money in retirement

The life expectancy tables used throughout the financial advice and retirement industry have issues and you need to prepare for the possibility of living a lot longer than you might have thought. Plan accordingly.

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