Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 406

Are we underestimating the peak of the V-shaped recovery?

By now most investors are tiring of their email in boxes filling with economists and strategists talking about reflation (that is, a recovery in spending and economic growth), how much more optimistic they are relative to consensus, and for how much longer the reflation trade will persist.

There were very few people talking about a strong V-shaped recovery this time last year. Indeed, a scan of the forecasts of leading sell-side economists in April 2020 shows consensus forecasts of 3% for the CY21 for Australia and 3.8% for the USA.

A switch to stronger growth forecasts

Indeed, peak pessimism was not reached until September 2020, when economic growth downgrades ceased and modest upgrades commenced. Currently, consensus for CY21 has risen to 5.7% in the USA and 4.4% for Australia.

In contrast, our forecasts for the US in 2021 – which we published in mid-April 2020 – was 6.5% (represented by the cross in Chart 1). For Australia (Chart 2) we were even more optimistic, forecasting 7.0% economic growth. As we moved through 2020, it was clear the expected contraction in economic growth in 2020 was less than expected and we reduced our forecast rebound in Australia’s economic growth in 2021 to a still sizeable 6.0%.

Much of our more upbeat analysis was based on:

  1. the nature of the shock being more akin to a natural disaster
  2. the quantum of the fiscal packages
  3. excess credit growth
  4. the outlook for vaccine development
  5. the prospect of pent up demand.

One year on, the clambering to upgrade growth estimates has only intensified. Over the past two months, consensus forecasts for Australian economic growth in 2021 have been upgraded a further 0.7%. In the USA the revision over the past two months is a remarkable 1.6%.

For Australia. we remain 1.5% above the consensus forecast and around 1% above the most optimistic other forecaster. What supports our optimism?

1. Australia’s data consistently beats economic forecasters

Charts 3 and 4 show our calculation of economic data surprises for economic activity and inflation relative to consensus forecasts (US vs Australia). A positive reading represents economic data beating consensus expectations weighted by data importance and time decay.

Clearly, Australia’s economic activity data is not only continuing to beat increasingly upbeat economic forecasts, the positive data surprises are larger in Australia.

2. Real economic growth is expanding at pace

Our 'nowcasting' techniques (Chart 5) for gauging in real-time how fast the economy is expanding already suggest that real economic growth was expanding at 4% yoy by the end of 1Q2021. 

Note: Our nowcasting methodology is to estimate real time economic growth via both dynamic factor models and principal component models for each of the major economies to provide an alternative underlying picture of economic growth to the often noisier official GDP data.

3. Treasury’s projections have been comfortably exceeded

Much stronger economic growth, much lower unemployment and much stronger commodity prices have combined to already deliver a $23 billion better fiscal outcome relative to Treasury’s December projections and closer to a $50 billion saving over the next four years.

The question for Q2 is how much more of an 'economic surprise' dividend will likely flow through the Budget and what will the Government do with it?

We believe the Treasury’s growth figures are 0.5% too low for 2020-21 and 1.25% too low for 2021-22. The unemployment rate is likely too high by as much as 2%. And an iron ore assumption of $55/tonne embedded in the Budget is one-third of the current iron ore price. Clearly there are further major revenue upgrades to come.

Our take is that the May Budget will be used mainly to evidence the vastly better Budget and economic outcomes that have been achieved. We expect the true election Budget will come in late 2021 (i.e. mid-year Budget), with more strategic spending and tax changes announced to setup a May 2022 Election. The combination of the Coalition’s political challenges and the Budget’s economic windfalls will likely spark additional fiscal spending later in 2021, sufficient to bolster economic growth expectations.

Momentum to continue over 2021

Mid-2021 will likely mark the peak of global economic data surprises and the final phase of economic growth upgrades. Nevertheless, we believe there is more oxygen in Australia’s economic recovery and that consensus has long been too slow to recognise the domestic economy’s capacity to expand at close to 6% through 2021. 

While this will set off expectations of a higher cash rate ahead of the RBA’s 2024 guidance, the RBA can be expected to attempt to allay those fears by making the case that inflation expectations and wage growth remains too low to be consistent with their inflation objective. Nevertheless, the likely RBA growth upgrades will almost certainly end the prospect of the RBA rolling the 3-year bond beyond the April 2024 target. Together with the end of the Term Funding Facility in mid-2021 the reality is that a very modest tightening cycle is already commencing.

 

Tim Toohey is Head of Macro and Strategy at Yarra Capital Management. To the extent that this article discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should be construed as general advice only. References to ‘consensus’ throughout relate to Bloomberg consensus unless otherwise stated.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

The coiled spring: markets are primed for the year ahead

2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?

What to do about the growing chorus of market correction warnings?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

4 ways to take advantage of the market turmoil

Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.

Shares

Why the ASX needs dual-class shares

The ASX is exploring the introduction of dual class share structures for listed companies. Opposition is building to the plan but the ASX should ignore the naysayers and bring Australia into line with its global peers.

The state of women's wealth in Australia

New research shows the average Australian woman has $428,000 in net wealth, 40% less than the average man. This takes a deep dive into what the gender wealth gap looks like across different life stages.

Investing

The two most dangerous words in investing

Market extremes are where the biggest investment risks and opportunities lie. While events like this are usually only obvious in hindsight, learning to watch out for these two words can alert you to them in real time.

Shares

Investing in the backbone of the digital age

Semiconductors are used to make microchips and are essential to a vast range of technology and devices. This looks at what’s driving demand for chips, how the industry is evolving, and favoured stocks to play the theme.

Gold

Why gold’s record highs in 2025 differ from prior peaks

Gold prices hit new recent highs, driven by a stronger euro, tariff concerns, and steady ETF buying – all while the precious metal’s fundamental backdrop remains solid amid a shifting global economic landscape.

Now might be the best time to switch out of bank hybrids

In this interview, Schroders' Helen Mason discusses investing in corporate and financial credit securities, market impacts of tariffs, opportunities for cash investments, and views on tier two and hybrid bonds.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.