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Economic Growth

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Australia's economic report card heading into the polls

Our economy grew by a nominal rate of 7% per annum from 2017 to 2024, but it benefited from the largesse of fiscal and monetary policies, both of which are now fading. We need a new, credible economic growth agenda.

The fetish for lower taxes has gone too far

Since the time of Reagan and Thatcher, most business leaders and investors have clung to a dogmatic belief that lower taxes bring higher profits and economic growth. The truth, as always, is far more complicated than that.

Federal budget forecast errors need greater scrutiny

The discrepancies that are appearing between Treasury budget forecasts and actual outcomes need closer examination. The inaccurate forecasts are impacting economic projections and investment decisions.

2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?

2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 591 with weekend update

  • 19 December 2024
  • 22

Australia is at a crossroads: we’re one of the world’s richest countries, yet our wealth has stagnated over the past 15 years. A review of our history and how we became prosperous offers clues to the best ways to kickstart the economy.

What to do about the growing chorus of market correction warnings?

Since the 1970s, whenever positive economic growth and disinflation have joined forces, they've produced good conditions for equities, particularly for companies with pricing power. It bodes well for markets going forward.

New research shows diverging economic impacts of climate change

There is universal consensus that the Earth is experiencing climate change. Yet there is far more debate about how this will impact different economies across the globe. New research sheds more light on the winners and losers.

Is India the world's best growth story?

India has overtaken China as the world's most populous nation and under a reformist Prime Minister, it's growing faster than most other emerging markets. It's also got well-run companies, some of which are global leaders.

Why Asia remains one of the world's best growth stories

China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of many Asian economies’ strong growth momentum in the past year. But heading into 2024, Asia's growth story should reignite.

Population and ageing nonsense … again

Fearmongering about Australia’s ageing population has ramped up again recently. If you want a big Australia, then make your argument for it, but don’t pretend that the age structure of the population is the reason why.

Stagflation is underrated in the shifting economic narrative

It might not look this way at the moment, but secular stagflation, when the economy produces underemployment, low inflation, and low real and nominal interest rates, is more likely than the market is expecting. 

Are we underestimating the peak of the V-shaped recovery?

Consensus growth forecasts are far too conservative, and the Coalition’s political challenges and the Budget’s economic windfalls will likely spark additional fiscal spending later in 2021, giving further boosts.

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

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