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10 March 2025
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Money supply provides an early and good read on whether the cash rate setting is transmitting to accelerating, steady or slowing price pressures. This explores recent data on money supply and what lies ahead for inflation.
New figures show the cost-of-living crisis is continuing to hit workers hard, though it appears to be easing for pensioners. The Government’s problem is that people have long memories when it comes to price increases.
Strategist Russell Napier says central banks have lifted interest rates too far and a deflationary shock is coming. He believes Governments will react radically and investors should avoid bonds and US stocks, and own more gold.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.
Our housing system isn't working, with prices and rents growing faster than wages, longer public housing waiting lists and more people are experiencing homelessness. Here are five ways to ease the crisis.
Asset pricing remains buoyant and equity markets continue to chase financial assets over real ones. As the gap between ‘growth’ stocks and the rest widens further, investors need to decide which side to jump.
Recent volatility has reflected nervousness about tech stocks in the US and whether they can deliver returns on massive AI investment. With rates set to fall, these stocks and the broader US market should continue to find favour.
The RBA's prescription to hike rates may not work to lower inflation into the bank’s 2-3% target band. If anything, there appears to be a positive correlation between interest rates and inflation.
There's nothing wrong with budget deficits if they are appropriately set for a desired economic outcome. But it does require a breakaway from dogmatic economic thought that seems rife among economists and politicians.
Since the 1970s, whenever positive economic growth and disinflation have joined forces, they've produced good conditions for equities, particularly for companies with pricing power. It bodes well for markets going forward.
Financial commentators seem to have forgotten the leading cause of inflation: growth in the supply of money. Warren Bird explains the link and explores where it suggests inflation is headed.
As inflation is likely to remain stubbornly elevated, the correlation between bonds and equities could remain high, reducing diversification within portfolios. A gold allocation may help to better protect your investments.
The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.
This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now.
While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.
With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?
The capital gains tax main residence exemption is no longer 'fit for purpose', due to its inequities, inefficiency, and complexity. Here are several suggestions for adapting or curtailing the concession.
A Grattan Institute report suggests lifetime annuities as a solution to people not spending their super balances. The issue is whether underspending is the real problem or a sign of more fundamental failings in our retirement system.