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Edition: 476

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 476 with weekend update

  • 22 September 2022
  • 9

One of the downsides of being a financial newsletter and media junkie is reading the same material over and over again. Every month, fund managers deliver reports to investors, and it's as if they subscribe to the same AI programme, with a heavy focus on the short term and central bank musings.

Readers back mining tax and gas reserve but not Stage 3

Over 800 responses and thousands of comments is great feedback. Readers of Firstlinks hold strong opinions on gas, taxes, inflation, child care and cost-of-living concessions, and now the Governor is buying in.

Dividends strong as some things change, some stay the same

With inflation above 6%, the real value of term deposits is falling rapidly, and some retirees may be shocked how quickly they qualify for and rely on the age pension. Meanwhile, the outlook for dividends is good.

The wealth-destroying impact of inflation

Since 1980, inflation eroded 81% of purchasing power. $100,000 then can now buy only $19,000 worth of goods and services. The longer money must last, the more we need ‘growth’ assets with inflation protection.

The most-challenging year to retire in recent history

Economic surprises like an inflationary spike, slow growth and recession can lead to a swift market downturn, further complicating the ability of retirees to preserve capital while taking income.

Three steps for navigating the tougher road ahead

We are in a new thesis and a regime change. Central banks previously supported asset prices but now the focus is on beating inflation. Investors need new strategies to adapt to the different conditions ahead.

In portfolio construction, actions speak louder than words

Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.

Stagflation is underrated in the shifting economic narrative

It might not look this way at the moment, but secular stagflation, when the economy produces underemployment, low inflation, and low real and nominal interest rates, is more likely than the market is expecting. 

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

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