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Edition: 476

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 476 with weekend update

  • 22 September 2022
  • 9

One of the downsides of being a financial newsletter and media junkie is reading the same material over and over again. Every month, fund managers deliver reports to investors, and it's as if they subscribe to the same AI programme, with a heavy focus on the short term and central bank musings.

Readers back mining tax and gas reserve but not Stage 3

Over 800 responses and thousands of comments is great feedback. Readers of Firstlinks hold strong opinions on gas, taxes, inflation, child care and cost-of-living concessions, and now the Governor is buying in.

Dividends strong as some things change, some stay the same

With inflation above 6%, the real value of term deposits is falling rapidly, and some retirees may be shocked how quickly they qualify for and rely on the age pension. Meanwhile, the outlook for dividends is good.

The wealth-destroying impact of inflation

Since 1980, inflation eroded 81% of purchasing power. $100,000 then can now buy only $19,000 worth of goods and services. The longer money must last, the more we need ‘growth’ assets with inflation protection.

The most-challenging year to retire in recent history

Economic surprises like an inflationary spike, slow growth and recession can lead to a swift market downturn, further complicating the ability of retirees to preserve capital while taking income.

Three steps for navigating the tougher road ahead

We are in a new thesis and a regime change. Central banks previously supported asset prices but now the focus is on beating inflation. Investors need new strategies to adapt to the different conditions ahead.

In portfolio construction, actions speak louder than words

Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.

Stagflation is underrated in the shifting economic narrative

It might not look this way at the moment, but secular stagflation, when the economy produces underemployment, low inflation, and low real and nominal interest rates, is more likely than the market is expecting. 

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

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