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21 January 2025
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Australia needs to build new homes like never before but construction firms keep going belly up. Unless regulators act now, consumers will continue to carry the can.
Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.
The Build to Rent sector is embryonic in Australia, representing less than 0.5% of housing stock across the country. Is this burgeoning asset class set to take off and deliver for both investors and tenants?
Despite signs of optimism, market valuations are stretched and recovery is fuelled by government support. Some companies are doing well but stimulus cannot continue to prop up consumers for too long.
A decline in activity related to household construction, combined with the arrival of foreign retail brands, does not bode well for Australian retailers. And an online behemoth may be an even bigger threat.
History indicates that Australian house prices are more likely to flatline than collapse. The main problem is likely to be in high-rise construction, with banks exposed to highly-leveraged buyers and developers.
A credit-fuelled property bubble enabled China to maintain its incredible run of growth through the GFC. But now it has to deal with the implications of a massive excess supply of property, as millions of homes lie vacant.
Recent developments in China’s credit and property markets could lead to a slowdown in the country’s economic growth. If this happens there would be significant implications for global investors.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.