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22 January 2025
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Magellan's Head of Global Equities, Arvid Streimann, thinks that although stock price momentum will slow next year, cyclical companies will lead the pack. He outlines the risks to his forecast and the stocks he likes best.
Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.
Our annual scorecard for Australian banks shows earnings were hit by remediation costs and slow credit growth, but they are in good health and look attractive versus other listed companies.
This exclusive annual scorecard checks bank results in a difficult year, and looks ahead at the hurdles and opportunities for the sector that many Australians rely on for their income.
In many valuations, the ‘Golden Rule’ is being broken. Earnings growth is assuming the sort of strong economic activity that would trigger higher interest rates, yet investors are delinking the two.
Markets and assets look expensive, but technology at least offers high revenue growth and fast rates of adoption. However, much of that great promise may benefit consumers more than investors.
Our regular check on the 'star' performances from the Australian banks' May 2018 reporting season in the face of low credit growth, increased regulatory scrutiny and the sales of insurance and wealth management divisions.
Investors are complacent and expect double-digit profit growth to continue for many years, but the market consensus for EPS growth is now in dangerous territory with more downside potential than upside.
The Australian market is dominated by 12 large companies that are low-growth yield plays. Investors need to look in other places for diversification and growth opportunities.
The investment landscape might have changed dramatically over the last 25 years, but investors can still rely on many of the same principles from the past to make sound investment decisions in the present.
With investors gravitating towards ‘safer’ equities for yield, the equity risk premium is playing an important role in the variance of earnings multiples between defensive and cyclical sectors of the Australian equity market.
Not all company growth is created equal. While a headline growth figure may look impressive, it's how this growth is financed that determines whether it's a good or bad thing for shareholders.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.