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21 January 2025
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The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes, trade wars and policy uncertainty. Here's what it means for markets going forward.
The current difficulties confronting housing policy partially stem from an explosion of mortgage debt. We've engineered a price for housing that will cause a severe problem for future generations – if it isn't addressed.
The RBA's prescription to hike rates may not work to lower inflation into the bank’s 2-3% target band. If anything, there appears to be a positive correlation between interest rates and inflation.
News outlets and RBA watchers use a handy tool from the ASX to gauge market predictions for the RBA cash rate. Yet the tool has an obvious flaw that needs to be fixed to better reflect current monetary policy.
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
Australia's economy is in good shape after the extraordinary shift in global markets over the past 12 months, but here are nine macro and geopolitical factors for investors to check in a rapidly-changing world.
Investors often overlook the extent to which expected increases in cash rates are already built into longer-term rates. Bonds may be attractive even as cash rates rise if the market is assuming too much tightening.
Deputy Governor, Michelle Bullock, explained last week why the RBA bought $280 billion of bonds in its QE programme, but are we paying the price for this stimulus as rising inflation shocks central bankers?
Central banks need data and sources as up-to-date as possible, yet Australia's Reserve Bank sees a new CPI only once a quarter. And the US Fed's rate committee waits two months for its next meeting.
Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.
China is approaching a 'Lewis turning point' at the same time it faces a demographic time bomb with its rapidly-ageing 1.4 billion population. How it solves these problems will have a massive impact on Australia.
The outlook for emerging market debt in 2021 revolves around liquidity, uneven recoveries and debt sustainability. Damage has been done to many countries’ finances and watch for central banks withdrawing support.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.