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The two most dangerous words in investing

Market extremes are where the biggest investment risks and opportunities lie. While events like this are usually only obvious in hindsight, learning to watch out for these two words can alert you to them in real time.

Australia's economic report card heading into the polls

Our economy grew by a nominal rate of 7% per annum from 2017 to 2024, but it benefited from the largesse of fiscal and monetary policies, both of which are now fading. We need a new, credible economic growth agenda.

A new capital cycle is driving US exceptionalism

A new capital cycle is upon us and instead of funding dividends and buybacks, many companies are funding tangible projects. This could result in a whole different set of stock market winners and losers.

UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.

After DeepSeek, what's next for the big US tech companies?

DeepSeek has surprised investors, but it shouldn't: it's part of a normal capital cycle. Big tech companies have made a lot of money, which attracts capital and competition, and eventually hurts returns and incumbent share prices.

Federal budget forecast errors need greater scrutiny

The discrepancies that are appearing between Treasury budget forecasts and actual outcomes need closer examination. The inaccurate forecasts are impacting economic projections and investment decisions.

A reluctant investor’s guide to understanding bitcoin

As every aspect of our lives has been transformed by digitisation, the changing nature of money and currencies should come as no surprise. But while bitcoin is here to stay, many investors still lack a clear grasp of what it is. 

How can you not be bullish the US?

Trump's election has turbocharged US equities, but can that outperformance continue? Expensive valuations, rising bond yields, and a potential narrowing of EPS growth versus the rest of the world, are risks.

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

What's behind the surge in Bitcoin and gold?

US bank balance sheets are expanding again, driving increasing money supply that is finding its way into markets. It means inflation is likely to remain high, and inflation hedges like Bitcoin and gold may continue to do well.

Will the Year of the Dragon be good for markets?

Will the Year of the Dragon prove a fruitful one for markets? Strong labor markets and a loosening in financial conditions should help in the first half of 2024, though things may get more rocky as the year progresses.

Why ESG assessment must now consider active ownership

Regardless of how an investor owns an asset, they need to know how a business is sustainable over the long term. By influencing the activities or behaviour of investee companies, returns can be enhanced.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 602 with weekend update

Markets are undergoing a mini-crash and there’s a whiff of fear in the air. The challenge for investors is emotional rather than intellectual, and here are three rules to ensure that your portfolio remains on track.

  • 13 March 2025

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

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