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21 January 2025
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The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.
Economic growth in Australia looks to have bottomed, which means it makes sense to selectively add to cyclical exposures on the ASX in addition to key thematics like decarbonisation and technological change.
What is the catalyst for smalls caps to start outperforming their larger counterparts? Cheap relative valuation is bullish though it isn't a catalyst, so what else could drive a long-awaited turnaround?
Valuations for the Magnificent Seven stocks are baking in extraordinary growth over the next decade. History shows that delivering on high growth expectations is difficult, but will this time prove different?
Strong performance from large cap equities indices have lulled passive investors into the false security that their hands-off approach is easier and superior. Here's why that isn't sustainable and small caps are set to benefit.
There can be both good and bad reasons behind a company that has become a large cap. It is not always apparent, but understanding the reasons can help focus on what matters when finding large-cap stocks.
Checking global stocks with higher prices than the FANGAM stocks but weaker margins and growth identified almost 100 companies. Astonishingly, the ‘Heady Hundred’ are valued at over US$3 trillion.
Despite the rhetoric from some investors, backing smaller, riskier stocks in the Australian share market will not necessarily give better returns than larger, less volatile stocks.
The business environment has favoured massive dominant firms, but the question for the future is whether this is as good as it gets. Is the usual mean-reversion about to start?
The sizeable increase in the market capitalisation of the technology leaders has inadvertently led to reduced diversification via a reduction to a mid cap exposure in portfolios represented by the Russell 1000.
Disruption investing is not the same as investing in technology. It's about knowing which companies are best placed to capitalise on the next big trends, and the winners are not always obvious.
Inefficiencies in the small caps index means outperformance is common but that should not cost 60% more in fees than large caps. Large caps have outperformed small caps over the long term but with significant variability.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.