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21 January 2025
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Like the proverbial middle child, global mid-caps tend to be overlooked and underappreciated. However, mid-caps offer potentially more growth than large caps and less risk and volatility than small and micro-caps.
Global asset owners have historically allocated capital to two distinct equity asset classes: global large cap and/or global small cap. There's a good argument for a small-midcap fund to be part of investor portfolios.
There's been a 13-year runway of varying degrees of capital allocation that paid little attention to fundamentals and valuation. If there was ever a market environment when quality stocks are expected to perform, it's now.
Small and mid cap stocks potentially offer investors an opportunity not seen in decades as valuations are close to two standard deviations 'cheap' relative to larger companies. It's not the only thing in their favour.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.
Global equity markets have experienced huge volatility during 2020. Investors are now looking at stretched large cap valuations but there are good opportunities in less well-known, smaller companies.
Australian investors have a domestic bias, but around the world, a swag of small to medium cap companies offer better value than the mega-cap names that have driven markets in recent years.
The sizeable increase in the market capitalisation of the technology leaders has inadvertently led to reduced diversification via a reduction to a mid cap exposure in portfolios represented by the Russell 1000.
Companies ranked 51st to 100th by ASX capitalisation are in the mid-cap sector. They have better historic returns, industry diversity, insider ownership, and growth prospects than the S&P/ASX50.
Investing in mid-caps not only avoids the concentration of banking and mining companies in the Top 20, but has provided better returns due to their growth potential and agility in making strategic decisions.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.