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22 January 2025
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Former RBA Governor Ian Macfarlane says current serviceability buffer rules are making it difficult to refinance fixed-term loans, warning the government may need to step in if things get 'really nasty'.
Interest rates are up again, with promises of more to come, but a major story is being glossed over in all the reporting. Large institutions have a feeding frenzy when people become vulnerable or get into trouble.
Shared equity mortgages, as a solution to Australia’s housing affordability problem, have been talked about for years, but it's been left to governments to develop initiatives in this area. This year, things changed.
After 40 years in the market, Michael Witts retired recently as Treasurer of ING Bank Australia, a position he held for 12 years. He reflects on changes over the years including in mortgages, regulations and funding.
The Australian economy is undergoing crucial changes. The Reserve Bank's attempts to slow activity is feeding into lending volumes and loan rates but can authorities manage inflation without economic contraction?
The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is the backbone of the American housing market. Is this a better approach than Australia's obsession with either short-term fixed or just variable rate mortgages?
The Melbourne Cup day RBA meeting confirms the cessation of the ‘yield control’ strategy that’s been in place since July. What might this signal for interest rates in the near term?
What is APRA worried about? Most mortgagees can easily absorb increases in interest rates without posing a systemic threat to the banking system. Housing lending is a relatively risk-free activity for banks.
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.
Enough abbreviations and acronyms. IMF, OECD, RBA, APRA, CFR, CBA and ANZ are all calling for curbs on housing lending to head off financial instability and mortgage stress. Why will it take APRA months to issue a paper?
The record run in house prices looks unsustainable but the outlook for Australian banks is for improving credit growth and earnings. For house prices to rise, the supply of credit must match demand from borrowers.
Only six months ago, the Reserve Bank was modelling the impact on banks if house prices fell 40%. It was called 'extreme by plausible'. Most economists expected a fall of at least 10%, yet here we are with record prices.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.