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20 April 2025

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Mapping future US market returns

Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.

The case for and against US stock market exceptionalism

The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.

Emerging market equities are ripe with opportunity

Emerging markets offer compelling value compared to history and the stretched valuations of developed market equities. Investors can benefit from three big tailwinds, but only if they are selective.

Why an active fund should not perform like its benchmark

Every fund is measured against a benchmark, but active managers earn their fees by taking strong views contrary to an index. It requires fortitude in the short term as interviews with Orbis and Allan Gray show.

Why emerging markets are difficult for index funds

Many investors are looking to emerging markets due to stretched valuations in developed markets, but there are particular reasons why choosing a passive ETF in emerging markets may not be optimal.

Two big reasons to go global

Although equities are widely-held by Australian investors, there is a strong domestic bias that gives many portfolios high sector concentrations. Better diversification requires a global focus.  

Retail investors can invest like institutions

Investment solutions that were once only available to the big end of town are now available to anyone willing to learn the same lessons, research the available products and try some new approaches.

Why has the Value investing style struggled?

The past few years have seen strong performance for Momentum and Growth strategies but poor outcomes for some with a Value bias. But is Value really due for a comeback as many people are arguing?

Baggy Green summit was bottom of GFC

After test matches resumed in 1993, Australia held the upper hand and peaked at the bottom of the GFC. In stock markets, South Africa is edging it in US$ terms but killing it in local currencies.

The hot spots in commercial real estate

Non-residential real estate performed strongly in 2017, but much of this return came from cap rate (yield) compression. Going forward, investors will need to focus more on income growth and sector allocation.

Index inclusion delayed for China but positives abound

Although the leading index-provider, MSCI, recently decided to delay accepting China A-shares into its emerging markets and other indexes, the long-term impact is likely to be minimal before these shares are included.

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Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

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