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21 January 2025
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The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
Rising urban housing costs in Australia are outpacing wage growth, particularly in cities like Sydney and Melbourne. This is leading to an exodus of workers, especially in their 30s, from cities to regions.
Housing affordability is shaping up as a major topic as we head toward the next federal election. The Coalition's proposal to allow home buyers to dip into their superannuation has merit, though misses one key feature.
Why has a succession of inquiries and reports, along with a plethora of academic papers, not led to effective action to improve housing affordability? Because the work has been aimless and unsupported by a national consensus.
The Coalition is continuing to push for superannuation to be used for housing deposits. It's a bad idea on several fronts, including that it would inevitably push up already expensive housing prices.
Our housing system isn't working, with prices and rents growing faster than wages, longer public housing waiting lists and more people are experiencing homelessness. Here are five ways to ease the crisis.
Sydney continues to have the most expensive median dwelling value, but the gap between it and the likes of Brisbane and Perth has narrowed. Melbourne's housing values are now the sixth lowest across the eight capital cities.
Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.
Why do house prices move in an up-and-flat pattern rather than up-and-down like shares? When house prices start to fall, supply reduces to create a new equilibrium, rather than needing even more price reductions.
Enough abbreviations and acronyms. IMF, OECD, RBA, APRA, CFR, CBA and ANZ are all calling for curbs on housing lending to head off financial instability and mortgage stress. Why will it take APRA months to issue a paper?
There are many questions surrounding the state of Australian real estate - affordability, foreign ownership, housing stock, population growth, and more. Perhaps an inquiry into housing is long overdue.
There has been a massive increase in apartment commencement, with 137,000 now under construction. There is doubt whether all buyers will proceed to settlement if prices fall due to oversupply.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.