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26 April 2024

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Bonds

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Will the Year of the Dragon be good for markets?

Will the Year of the Dragon prove a fruitful one for markets? Strong labor markets and a loosening in financial conditions should help in the first half of 2024, though things may get more rocky as the year progresses.

Stocks don't always beat bonds

Stocks always outperform bonds in the long-term, right? New research challenges that assumption, raising questions about historical financial data, and forecasts for future performance from the two largest asset classes.

Which asset classes are undervalued right now?

Many assets have had a rollercoaster 2023 though most are up, and some of them are up a lot. Here we compare valuations of cash, bonds, stocks, and property, and suggest where investors may be able find a bargain.

Time to announce the X-factor for 2023

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2023? It's time to select the winner.

Cash underperforms when rates peak

History tells us that hiding in cash isn't the best approach when interest rates peak. While equity markets have had a strong year driven by the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks, the rally might broaden to other sectors in 2024.

The best income-generating assets for your portfolio

Is it worth venturing beyond cash and term deposits for steady income? This looks at the pros and cons of assets - including stocks, bonds, and hybrids - in providing yield and how they stack up against cash.

The time for bonds has come

Bonds have had a miserable time of it for the past three years. Yet with central banks almost done with interest rate hikes and inflation set to fall towards central bank targets, bonds look primed for a bounce back.

The far-flung past as prologue

The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.

Is this the start of a generational bear market in bonds?

It's carnage in bond markets now with bonds potentially heading for a third straight year of losses, something that hasn't happened over the past 100 years. Is this the beginning of a decades-long bond bear market?

Investors need to look beyond bonds for safety

Australian investors have been allocating more to fixed income assets this year. Persistent inflation is a key risk for bonds, and that's where gold can play a diversifying role within an investment portfolio.

Do private investments belong in a diversified portfolio?

While private investments remain a potential source for differentiated equitylike return streams, their structure merits caution for retail investors. These investments can easily turn south without access to high quality teams.

Invest in equities until you reach your sleeping point

Benjamin Graham wrote that everyone should hold between 25% and 75% in equities, with the rest in bonds. That's a big range, but equities give the best long-term returns. The right level is the point where you sleep easy.

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2024/25 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 552 with weekend update

Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.

  • 21 March 2024

Why LICs may be close to bottoming

Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.

The public servants demanding $3m super tax exemption

The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.

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