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22 January 2025
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Accounting losses from a pandemic inspired bond buying spree have wiped out the RBA's equity and more, pushing its balance sheet into negative equity territory. How did it happen and what lessons can be learned?
Australia should break away from the dogmatic belief that the RBA must be independent of Government. How can it be, when the RBA is the country's largest single creditor, owning around 40% of government debt?
By keeping interest rates on hold this month, the RBA expects that rate increases to date will eventually weigh on consumers and house prices. Is the RBA early or is it wrong, and what are the implicatons for markets?
The response to inflation in advanced economies has seen rapid interest rate rises, but the money supply has remained elevated, particularly in Australia. Should the RBA be doing more to reduce its balance sheet?
The 60/40 portfolio has performed poorly during the recent period of high inflation. With peak inflation likely behind us, here's a stock-take on the year so far and what it might imply for portfolios going forward.
Fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller gave a much-publicised interview at the 2023 Sohn Conference in the US last week. In this extract, he warns about the asset bubble the US Fed has created and his dire expectations.
Australia's economy is in good shape after the extraordinary shift in global markets over the past 12 months, but here are nine macro and geopolitical factors for investors to check in a rapidly-changing world.
The RBA and interest rate markets are underestimating inflationary pressures. Combined with a government intent on increasing wages, there's a risk of entrenching higher inflation in Australia compared to elsewhere.
For the world’s central banks, the second half of 2022 has been dominated by addressing ‘today’s problem’ of high inflation. In 2023, the banks will switch focus to 'tomorrow's problem': global growth and unemployment.
The Federal Reserve rate hikes will crunch demand from businesses and consumers in the US. But their greatest impact will be on countries outside America that will be starved of capital when they need it most.
Rather than futile attempts to pick the bottom of the market, it's better to focus on improved valuations in quality companies and wait for the recovery in their businesses. But there are also problems to avoid.
Not long ago, globalisation seemed on a relentless growth path, promising to bring everyone into a global economy. But with politics, pandemics and the Ukraine war, 'geoeconomics’ will lower living standards for all.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.