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21 January 2025
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A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
Despite a recent pullback, gold has been one of the best performing assets this year. What are the key factors behind the rise and what's needed for the bull market in the yellow metal to continue?
Fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller gave a much-publicised interview at the 2023 Sohn Conference in the US last week. In this extract, he warns about the asset bubble the US Fed has created and his dire expectations.
There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
The biggest crisis facing the world economy is a lack of cheap energy to drive economic prosperity and growth. The only realistic solution is nuclear energy, which underpins our 8% shareholding in Energy Resources of Australia.
Cryptocurrency advocates are in total denial that their war against fiat currency has ended. FTX’s downfall should prove the final straw as the the world is moving on from crypto mania and it'll be better off for it.
Investors often overlook the extent to which expected increases in cash rates are already built into longer-term rates. Bonds may be attractive even as cash rates rise if the market is assuming too much tightening.
Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.
With stronger capital positions, improved brand equity and the potential to benefit from a robust post-pandemic recovery, the global banking sector is presenting significant opportunities for investors.
Social media, app and trading platforms that drive retail participation also open doors for greater volatility. Ironically, easy money is contributing to market risks, with shorting hit by spiking to the upside.
With central banks injecting as much liquidity as the market needs, the fundamental price signal has been lost. But the evidence is this does not help sustainable and long-term economic growth.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.