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22 July 2024

Home / Central Banks

Central Banks

1-12 out of 20 results.

Druckenmiller on the biggest mistake in the history of the Fed

Fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller gave a much-publicised interview at the 2023 Sohn Conference in the US last week. In this extract, he warns about the asset bubble the US Fed has created and his dire expectations.

Falling money supply points to recession, and maybe severe

There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.

Brace, brace, brace: The real issue behind the banking turmoil

The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.

The bull case for nuclear energy, oil and cheap China plays

The biggest crisis facing the world economy is a lack of cheap energy to drive economic prosperity and growth. The only realistic solution is nuclear energy, which underpins our 8% shareholding in Energy Resources of Australia.

Is it finally time to move on from crypto after FTX?

Cryptocurrency advocates are in total denial that their war against fiat currency has ended. FTX’s downfall should prove the final straw as the the world is moving on from crypto mania and it'll be better off for it.

Why we believe bonds are now beautiful

Investors often overlook the extent to which expected increases in cash rates are already built into longer-term rates. Bonds may be attractive even as cash rates rise if the market is assuming too much tightening.

Is it all falling apart for central banks?

Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.

Capital changes strengthen bank hybrid investments

With stronger capital positions, improved brand equity and the potential to benefit from a robust post-pandemic recovery, the global banking sector is presenting significant opportunities for investors.

Social media’s impact is changing markets

Social media, app and trading platforms that drive retail participation also open doors for greater volatility. Ironically, easy money is contributing to market risks, with shorting hit by spiking to the upside.

Limitless liquidity drives death of the price signal

With central banks injecting as much liquidity as the market needs, the fundamental price signal has been lost. But the evidence is this does not help sustainable and long-term economic growth.

Baseline outlook for economic recovery is too optimistic

We cannot throw our hands up in the air and say 'this time around, it's simply too hard'. Having no macro view is unhelpful, but many of the baseline scenarios are overly optimistic, says the former CEO of Westpac and now Chairman of Cboe (formerly Chi-X) Australia.

Together in isolation, four steps in a strange new world

Free spending by governments risks unsustainably higher debt levels, as deficits matter and must be paid for. Here are four steps investors should consider as previous techniques may not work.

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Meg on SMSFs: Clearing up confusion on the $3 million super tax

There seems to be more confusion than clarity about the mechanics of how the new $3 million super tax is supposed to work. Here is an attempt to answer some of the questions from my previous work on the issue. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 566 with weekend update

Here are 10 rules for staying happy and sharp as we age, including socialise a lot, never retire, learn a demanding skill, practice gratitude, play video games (specific ones), and be sure to reminisce.

  • 27 June 2024

Australian housing is twice as expensive as the US

A new report suggests Australian housing is twice as expensive as that of the US and UK on a price-to-income basis. It also reveals that it’s cheaper to live in New York than most of our capital cities.

The catalyst for a LICs rebound

The discounts on listed investment vehicles are at historically wide levels. There are lots of reasons given, including size and liquidity, yet there's a better explanation for the discounts, and why a rebound may be near.

The iron law of building wealth

The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.

How not to run out of money in retirement

The life expectancy tables used throughout the financial advice and retirement industry have issues and you need to prepare for the possibility of living a lot longer than you might have thought. Plan accordingly.

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