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Correlation

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Negative correlations, positive allocations

A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.

Stars align for fixed income

It isn't too late for investors to own bonds and take advantage of this early stage of the rate-cutting cycle. What's more, bonds are regaining their ability to be a genuine diversifier within portfolios.

An intriguing theory explaining persistent LIC discounts

The rise of trading discounts in closed-ended funds has challenged investors. This latest research suggests that funds that exhibit high volatility or beta tend to trade at larger discounts to their net tangible asset values. 

Why allocating more to fixed income now makes sense

High bond-equity correlation suggests increased overall portfolio risk, making greater fixed income allocations crucial for managing volatility. While bonds no longer diversify portfolios as much, elevated yields make them attractive. 

Why aren’t there more Warren Buffetts?

Warren Buffett is widely regarded as the most successful investor ever. Rather than keep his secret sauce hidden, he's shared his knowledge for decades, so why aren't more investors able to replicate his methods and success?

Do Government bonds still have a role to play for Australian investors?

Supposedly a defensive asset class, bonds have endured a horror four years. A massive boom preceded a massive bust, though the recent downdraft means future prospects appear brighter for high quality bonds.

The maths of friendship

Did you know you're far more likely to share genes with friends than non-friends? Or the number of friends you have is correlated to the size of certain parts of your brain? These are the latest findings of a famed psychologist.

The far-flung past as prologue

The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.

Passive investing has risks too

Last year was rough for investors, especially where equity and bond portfolios were not as diversified as they thought. Spreading the risk sounds simple but watch that funds are not all doing the same thing.

Gold remains solid as Bitcoin melts

Claims that Bitcoin has characteristics of 'digital gold' by protecting against equity market falls in troubled times are not supported by recent price moves. Crypto relies on supporters pumping up speculative gains.

Gold and inflation: what does history tell us?

Multiple factors have seen gold fall in 2021, despite the rise in inflation. But given gold has performed strongly across longer periods of higher inflation, gold may benefit under the current inflation outlook.

Gold over the next decade as other assets lose their shine

While gold has been in a corrective pattern for the last year, a solid case can be made in the coming decade as investors with portfolios concentrated in equities and fixed income struggle for good returns.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

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