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21 January 2025
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A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
It isn't too late for investors to own bonds and take advantage of this early stage of the rate-cutting cycle. What's more, bonds are regaining their ability to be a genuine diversifier within portfolios.
The rise of trading discounts in closed-ended funds has challenged investors. This latest research suggests that funds that exhibit high volatility or beta tend to trade at larger discounts to their net tangible asset values.
High bond-equity correlation suggests increased overall portfolio risk, making greater fixed income allocations crucial for managing volatility. While bonds no longer diversify portfolios as much, elevated yields make them attractive.
Warren Buffett is widely regarded as the most successful investor ever. Rather than keep his secret sauce hidden, he's shared his knowledge for decades, so why aren't more investors able to replicate his methods and success?
Supposedly a defensive asset class, bonds have endured a horror four years. A massive boom preceded a massive bust, though the recent downdraft means future prospects appear brighter for high quality bonds.
Did you know you're far more likely to share genes with friends than non-friends? Or the number of friends you have is correlated to the size of certain parts of your brain? These are the latest findings of a famed psychologist.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Last year was rough for investors, especially where equity and bond portfolios were not as diversified as they thought. Spreading the risk sounds simple but watch that funds are not all doing the same thing.
Claims that Bitcoin has characteristics of 'digital gold' by protecting against equity market falls in troubled times are not supported by recent price moves. Crypto relies on supporters pumping up speculative gains.
Multiple factors have seen gold fall in 2021, despite the rise in inflation. But given gold has performed strongly across longer periods of higher inflation, gold may benefit under the current inflation outlook.
While gold has been in a corrective pattern for the last year, a solid case can be made in the coming decade as investors with portfolios concentrated in equities and fixed income struggle for good returns.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.