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Equity Returns

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Mapping future US market returns

Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.

This cornerstone of stock market valuation has been left behind

For decades, cyclically adjusted P/E ratios have been a common and widely accepted gauge of market valuation. But as the financial landscape continues to evolve, so too must our tools for understanding it.

Why buying speculative stocks often proves irresistible

So you want to buy a speculative stock in the hope that it goes to the moon and you can retire in the Bahamas. There's only one problem - once you start purchasing these types of stocks, it's often hard to stop.

Defence beats offence in investing

Many are comparing Nvidia’s historic run to Cisco Systems in the 1990s. Here is a thought experiment comparing the returns of Cisco since that period to a more conservative alternative, and the results might surprise you.

The options to gain equity exposure with less risk

Equity investing pays off over long terms but comes with risks in the short term that many people cannot tolerate, especially retirees preserving capital. There are ways to invest in stocks with little downside.

Is your fund manager skilful or just lucky?

How do you separate skill from luck in the performance of a fund manager? Investing is a mix of art and science in a highly-competitive industry full of smart people. Here are tips on what to look for.

Four tips to catch the next 10-bagger in early-stage growth

Small cap investors face less mature companies with zero profit that need significant capital for growth. Without years of financial data to rely on, investors must employ creative ways to value companies.

How inflation impacts different types of investments

A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.

A year like few others, but what's next?

The anniversary of the pandemic low point in the S&P500 was 23 March 2021, delivering a staggering one-year return of 77%. If history is a guide, as policy normalises, investors will pivot to 'compounders' not cyclicals.

Is Australia turning Japanese? Watch these stocks

It has been three decades, and Japanese equities are still not back up to all-time highs reached at the end of one of the greatest bull markets in global history in 1989. Can we have lost decades in Australia too?

What drives Australian versus global equity performance?

We tend to think of the 'stockmarket' as one beast, but it pays to know the drivers of the different parts, especially global versus Australian stocks. The outlook favours global due to better sector exposure.

Funding retirement through a stock market crash

On the surface, a diversified fund looks the same as an SMSF with the same asset allocations. But to fund retirement, a member must sell units in the fund, whereas the cash balance is used in an SMSF.

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UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.

Retirement is a risky business for most people

While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Reform overdue for family home CGT exemption

The capital gains tax main residence exemption is no longer 'fit for purpose', due to its inequities, inefficiency, and complexity. Here are several suggestions for adapting or curtailing the concession.

So, we are not spending our super balances. So what!

A Grattan Institute report suggests lifetime annuities as a solution to people not spending their super balances. The issue is whether underspending is the real problem or a sign of more fundamental failings in our retirement system.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

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