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21 January 2025
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There's been a surge of interest in overseas equities as the Australian market lags. This explores various approaches to determine the best allocation of international equities within a long-term investment portfolio.
2023 saw global dividends rise to a record US$1.66 trillion, up by 5% on an underlying basis. The year also ended on a positive note, though Australian dividends lagged other countries, largely thanks to the miners.
For one Commonwealth Bank worth ~$200 billion, you can buy three of Europe's leading banks with much larger addressable markets. This is just one example of the extreme valuation divergences across global stock markets.
Many investors sell because they think the stockmarket will fall, with the intention of reinvesting. It requires two correct timing decisions but what signals will prompt a reinvestment? It's harder than it looks.
Global asset owners have historically allocated capital to two distinct equity asset classes: global large cap and/or global small cap. There's a good argument for a small-midcap fund to be part of investor portfolios.
Australian small caps have consistently failed to achieve excess returns due to structural problems. Global small-caps don't have the the same issues and have been an effective way to outperform over the long term.
Small and mid cap stocks potentially offer investors an opportunity not seen in decades as valuations are close to two standard deviations 'cheap' relative to larger companies. It's not the only thing in their favour.
Like in the 1970s, today's investors face challenges of inflation, cold war, and fraying global trade ties - but unlike then, there's now high debt and environmental problems. Here's how to best navigate the difficult backdrop.
Most global corporations' direct exposure to Russia is limited; however, rising commodity prices and supply chain disruptions will pressure consumer sentiment and raise inflationary risks.
Buying mispriced stocks is often uncomfortable when companies are outside the spotlight and markets are driven by emotions. And it's inescapable that the price paid ultimately determines the end result.
The leading global innovation companies such as Amazon, Google, Tencent and Alibaba, alongside tomorrow’s champions in Tesla, Afterpay and Xero, offer better prospects than traditional ‘old-world’ value investments.
Global equities offer higher return opportunities, portfolio diversification and exposure to specific themes. A broad index is the primary building block but there are many ways to enhance global returns.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.