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21 January 2025
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Unlike their peers in the US and UK, policy makers in Australia haven't faced a bond market rebellion in recent times. This could change if current levels of issuance at the state and territory level continue.
Australia's bloated government sector is every bit as responsible for our economic worries as the cost of living crisis. Grand schemes like the 'Future Made in Australia' only look set to make it worse.
Global defence spending has inflected higher, bringing huge opportunity to a group of companies that have already outperformed broader market indices over the long-term.
Asset pricing remains buoyant and equity markets continue to chase financial assets over real ones. As the gap between ‘growth’ stocks and the rest widens further, investors need to decide which side to jump.
The budget has cost-of-living support including energy relief, cheaper medicines, improved bulk billing access, and rental help. It also hints the Government won't change the way it calculates the new super tax.
Governments borrowing for roads, infrastructure and items that have a long-term payback is good debt, but cash handouts for the sole purpose of getting the government back into power is 'bad' debt.
With considerable resources spent on qualifying for the age pension and grappling with super consequences, there have been regular calls for a universal pension. How might it work and what are the benefits?
Governments and investors have been complacent about the build up of debt, but at some level, a ceiling exists. Are we near yet? Trouble is brewing, especially in the eurozone and emerging countries.
Despite cutbacks in public service staff, we are spending over a billion dollars a year with five consulting firms. There is little public scrutiny on the value for money. How do consultants decide what to charge?
Super tax concessions will be worth more than the cost of the pensions in future, but they represent two fundamentally different forms of government support for our retirement income system. Both have a role.
Every five years, we receive a snapshot of what Australia may look like in 40 years. We will live longer with more spending on health, pensions and super but with fewer workers. Where will 40 million people live?
The $17.7 billion plan for aged care looks exciting but while the system will provide greater choice, transparency and care for many, there will still be senior members of 'Team Australia' who miss out.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.