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20 September 2024

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Whitepapers:

1-100 out of 460 results.

Private debt: Few facts behind the fears

Despite a rising tide of negative media coverage, we believe that private debt still has tremendous potential to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns for investors.

How global equities performed in prior Federal Reserve easing cycles

As the Federal Reserve gears up for a rate cut, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Chris Galipeau and Lukasz Kalwak revisit their asset-market performance study. This time, they focus on the global equity market impact.

Credit and Fixed Income Portfolio Compass 2024

Covering local and international markets, VanEck's new report on credit and fixed income investing analyses the current state of play across relevant asset classes in light of expected rate movements in Australia and the US.

Deep waves Longevity: the undertow to the demographic wave

Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis suggests longer life expectancy around the world is a blessing but calls for preparation. This includes financial services firms that can develop longer client relationships by placing extra emphasis on building trust with aging investors.

Letter to Investors FY25

In his latest letter to investors, John Abernethy says that while the doomsayers fill the media with stories of despair, the world economy pushes forward relentlessly – and it will do so again.

AI and Electricity Demand: The Very Hungry Caterpillar

This paper explores how power constraints will impact the progress of AI, what the electricity demand boom means for the commodities market, as well as the implications for investors exposed to utilities and infrastructure investments.

Schroders CIO Lens Q3 2024

Investors have found plenty to worry about in recent newspaper headlines, creating a complex environment to negotiate. Being able to cut through the noise, and focus on what’s most material for markets, is essential.

Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024

Global gold demand was up 4% y/y by the end of June, led by healthy OTC demand, record central bank purchases and improved ETF flows. In Australia, record gold prices, a strong AUD and economic pressures led to a 25% fall in gold consumption in Q2, though ETF investment remained stable.

Investment Horizons: Key themes shaping future returns

This report explores why it makes sense to step back from current conditions and assess the medium-term outlook for growth, earnings, interest rates and valuations, and to consider secular forces likely to produce solid investment returns over time.

Global Equities Investor Letter 2024

Despite varying economic cycles, equity markets have achieved impressive gains. This paper provides valuable insights into the drivers of these gains and how they are positioning the portfolios to take advantage of emerging growth patterns and industry trends.

The Waiting Game

Every percentage point outside of consensus, and every basis point change has been thrilling markets. It’s what lies beneath that markets are waiting for.

Where in the world should investors look for earnings?

For investors seeking a combination of future earnings potential and favorable valuations, the Franklin Templeton Institute suggests looking toward emerging markets. While US stocks have historically dominated in performance and earnings growth, the landscape could be shifting.

New anchors reshaping supply chains: Opportunities for investors.

Eastspring's pulse survey across North America, Europe and Asia reveals that supply chain rebalancing is among the top priorities for businesses. As global supply chains evolve, businesses are rebalancing to not only mitigate risks but also capture opportunities.

The power of being defensive and different

Recent years have been volatile as investors have tried to forecast the trajectory for inflation, interest rates, and global growth. Conditions are looking up for equity investors now, but material uncertainty remains.

Why Australia has missed out on the “small cap effect”

The "small cap effect" suggests smaller companies offer higher risk-adjusted returns, but in the Australian market, small caps haven't matched these expectations, and investing broadly across the ASX may be better.

The Super Retirement Approach

Most people recognise the importance of having superannuation, which makes them feel more secure about their future, but acknowledge that it should not be the only source of funding for a comfortable retirement.

Securitized credit: More relatable and connected to daily life than you think

Securitisations are all around our daily lives, so why do they strike most of us as a complex, financially engineered labyrinth? This paper explains why securitisations exist, what opportunities they offer, and the benefits securitised credit offers a multi-asset portfolio.

The demographic wave: The tide is going out

For investors, demographics are a driver of country risk, and they can impact productivity, economic growth, sovereign financials and debt ratings. Demographics are not destiny, but they do set parameters.

The US November 2024 Election: Implications for Investors

This paper examines the key policy implications of the Biden vs. Trump rematch, particularly regarding trade, tariffs, taxes, and energy, as well as for the Fed, industrial policy, deregulation, and defense, as well as their implications for investors.

Gold Demand Trends Q1 2024

Global gold demand was up 3% y/y, led by long and speculative investment from the OTC market, persistent central bank buying, and higher demand from Asian buyers. Australia was an outlier in the Asia region, recording its lowest quarter on record for gold consumption, though ETF holdings remained relatively stable.

Electric Vehicles hit a speed bump

Electric vehicles (EVs) are seen as a key technology for reducing emissions. Following a period of exponential growth, the outlook for EV manufacturers has recently become more challenging. Where do we see the opportunities?

Australian Equities Outlook April 2024

VanEck's Australian equities outlook, published April 2024, dissects its views on inflation, policy rates, economic growth, external risks and market implications as the lagged effect of one of the sharpest RBA rate hike cycles hits hardest this year.

Walking, not running, the last mile of inflation

The US economy shows strength, with a tight job market and solid wage growth, while the European economy remains stagnant, and both central banks are looking for continued evidence of lower inflation before starting their easing cycle.

ViewPoint: Divergence

‘Divergence’ is the key theme for VanEck's latest update as 2024 heralds a distinct de-syncing of central banks, which had more or less been following a similar approach to monetary policy for the last few years.

Health care: a sector under the weather?

Health care stocks underperformed significantly in 2023, with the US elections this year potentially causing further headwinds. However, there are plenty of reasons for optimism as we enter a ‘golden era’ of health care innovation.

Why gold in 2024? Safeguarding investment portfolios

With the soft-landing narrative on the ascendancy, optimism is high within capital markets today. But challenges are on the horizon. As such, we believe that investors should look closely at the portfolio benefits gold can bring.

Fiscal dominance: Emerging markets’ upper-hand

Most investors remain under-allocated to emerging market (EM) bonds despite hard currency EM bonds having outperformed developed market bonds over the past 20 years.

Social and Regulatory Risks of AI

While we have a high conviction in the structural growth tailwinds of AI, as investors, understanding the risks and opportunities associated with this new technology is vitally important.

ETF quarterly report - December 2023

The Australian ETF market attracted $5.3 billion in net inflows in Q4. Australian investors flocked to bond ETFs in 2023 as rising interest rates made fixed income allocations more attractive.

Infrastructure positioned to outperform in 2024

Infrastructure assets are expected to see earnings growth in 2024 and beyond, aided by structural growth drivers, especially utilities which are benefiting from energy transition.

David beats Goliath: A story of private equity

In this piece, Schroders looks at the 'liquidity problem' facing large superannuation and private equity funds, and highlights the performance they’re missing out on in the small and middle markets.

Vanguard's submission to the Superannuation in retirement consultation

Vanguard Australia's contribution to the Federal Government’s Superannuation in retirement consultation shares its views on how the super system can best provide retirement confidence and security for Australians.

Private Credit Is gaining steam - Where do we go from here

This paper discusses the remarkable rise of private credit; the factors that, in our view, will shape its evolution; and its potential to continue delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns for selective investors.

Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2023

Another year of blistering central bank buying, together with resilient jewellery consumption, offset substantial annual ETF outflows. Sizable OTC investment was evident in gold’s price strength last year.

2024 Asset Allocation Outlook

Views on inflation, policy rates, economic growth and exogenous risks following the sharp rate hikes of last year. On balance, Australia and US should avoid a recession without the need for central bank policy rate cuts to smoothen the landing.

An introduction to utilities

Regulated utilities are known for their ability to generate predictable returns regardless of market conditions. For this reason, we often describe utility stocks as the ‘lead in the keel’ of our infrastructure portfolios. They allow us to navigate volatile global equity markets with confidence.

ViewPoint: Wash, Rinse, Repeat

How do investors approach 2024? The investment playbook is to approach risk assets selectively. A good start is to focus on leverage i.e. balance sheets and cash flow. We could see the US dollar come off further and gold continue to shine.

Regime shift: Characteristics of the ‘next’ economy and implications for Fixed Income

Fixed Income Outlook 2024 - Bonds suffered a rapid repricing in 2022 and 2023, but according to Schroder's Head of Fixed Income Stuart Dear, yields are now the best they’ve been in a decade.

Sunrise on Venus: Preparing for the investing environment of the next decade

Using long-term data, this paper looks at how we got here, which equities are at risk, why the investing world is changing, and how investors can prepare for the decade ahead.

Regime shift: Characteristics and investment implications of the ‘Next’ economy

Multi-Asset Outlook 2024 - Investors are looking for good news in 2024. Schroder Australia’s Head of Multi-Asset Sebastian Mullins identifies the corners of the market where he’s found it in this two-part series.

The state of investment and wealth management in 2023-2024

Reflections from Franklin Templeton’s latest Industry Advisory Services Annual Survey, which aims to help investors understand how the wealth and investment management industry is changing and better prepare them for the future.

Global Investment Outlook: Flexibility, resilience and opportunity

Trees are an appropriate metaphor for investing. When nurtured, they grow gradually but inexorably. Upon maturity they yield their bounty—shade, nuts and sweet fruit. Yet some trees withstand adversity better than others.

Redefining the office flight to quality: a Sydney CBD case study

On face value, it’s easy to see why the 'Premium is best' narrative has emerged – but there’s more to the story! Greater diversity of spaces is needed to support focused work, collaboration, and flexibility, with implications for building layouts and landlord-led fitouts.

Economic outlook: A mixed picture for global growth in 2024

Under the weight of elevated inflation and high interest rates, the world’s major economies are diverging. Surprising resilience in the US, Japan and India is helping to boost the global economic outlook for 2024, while ongoing signs of weakness in Europe and China are tempering expectations for the new year.

The Capital Reinvestment Story

What is the purpose of a firm? The generally accepted answer is something along the lines of “maximize the value of the business for its owners,” which in the case of a publicly traded company is the stockholders. But what does that answer really mean in practice?

AI is the New Macro Part II: An AI Powered Productivity Boom

Part II of our series examines productivity, which has been the primary determinant of our prosperity and welfare. In turn, since at least Gutenberg, technologies like AI have been the critical driver of productivity.

Quarterly ETF report September 2023

The Australian ETF industry continues to grow year on year despite global market and economic uncertainty, recording $153 billion in AUM as at the end of September 2023. The last 10 years has seen AUM increase almost 18-fold, growing from A$8.9 billion in September 2013.

Energy transition: Accelerating investment opportunities

Arguably, humanity’s greatest current challenge is the need to shift to low and net-zero carbon in a little less than 30 years. These challenges create investment opportunities as investors have a critical role given the capital required to fund this transition.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 4Q 2023

Higher for Longer, Longer the Stronger. “Savings depletion and weakness among small-cap and regional bank stocks suggest that the U.S. economy may not be as strong as it seems.”

AI is the New Macro: Implications for the Labor Market

Generative AI is destined to be the key driver of equity markets over the next decade or so. Part I of a four part series identifies four key areas that could be impacted – labor, productivity, sector concentration and free cash flow generation.

The ins and outs of SMSF pensions

Superannuation is ultimately about saving for retirement. But even once you retire, you don’t have to take all your money out of super. Often the best way to manage it in the long term, is to start a 'superannuation income stream' or 'pension' within your SMSF.

The 3 pillars of Active Management outperformance

Over recent decades, equity markets have favoured index / index-hugging funds, with indices benefitting from a range of tailwinds, including falling yields, favourable fiscal policies, and relatively stable geopolitics. But those days appear to be over with these factors now creating major headwinds for markets.

Magellan Minutes on AI and Energy

Summaries of two "Magellan Minutes" video insights: developments and opportunities in Artificial Intelligence (AI); and opportunities from the energy transition and companies that may benefit from this transition.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 4Q 2023

Slowing growth could still be enough to avoid a hard landing, but in a higher-for-longer rate environment yields may provide the bulk of near-term total returns.

ViewPoint: A habit of higher

VanEck's latest outlook for global and Australian markets for the rest of the year concludes that inflation should rise, gold could glow, and puts liquidity and balance sheets in focus.

Fixed Income Views: Soft landing? Central banks trying to thread the needle

Franklin Templeton's Fixed Income team no longer expects a technical recession in the US and believes the trajectory of disinflation in both the US and euro area will flatten. Thus, central banks are likely to keep rates higher for longer.

Investors can assess nature now

Investors need well-functioning economies and societies to create stable markets. Given our economies are dependent on nature and we cannot get to net zero without nature, it is in investors’ interests to limit nature loss and protect the ecosystems.

Private debt themes leading into a recessionary environment

Private debt investors have recently benefited from the rising rate environment in the form of higher returns both from base rates, together with an adjustment to credit margins reflecting the current more challenging macroeconomic environment.

A resilience recipe for what comes next

Resilience begins with being aware of where you have come from compared to where you are now and adjusting portfolios accordingly. This means moderating return expectations and eschewing more risk to make up for the reduced market beta.

It’s always darkest before dawn: Why the stage is set for small caps to shine

This piece discusses the best environments for small caps outperformance, the rare valuation and earnings opportunity on offer today in small caps; and three emerging tailwinds set to drive small cap outperformance over the next 12-24 months.

Gold Demand Trends Q2 2023

Latest Gold Demand Trends report shows gold continued to perform globally as central bank buying hit a first half record. Australian consumption fell 37% in Q2 as AUD gold prices hover at all-time high levels.

Macro Perspectives: A changing inflation and growth climate

Although inflation will continue to be an issue for the next 6–12 months and the global economic recovery is uneven, there are investment opportunities ahead.

Ten for 2023 - Midyear Update

Last November, the heads of our four investment platforms identified the key themes they expected to be prominent in the markets during 2023. We revisited these concepts to see how they’ve played out so far and assess our outlook for the remainder of 2023.

Our take on AI (American Infrastructure)

First Sentier's global infrastructure team recently spent a couple of weeks in the US and Canada, meeting with management teams from the railroads, utilities and energy midstream sectors, as well as with regulators. This paper details their findings.

ViewPoint: Navigating landings

Market movements during the second quarter have been unpredictable and narrowly focused. The Fed’s fight against inflation still weighs on markets. A pivot in central bank policy may only happen if the order of magnitude changes significantly. This is true for both the Fed and the RBA.

Gold mid-year outlook 2023: Between a soft and a hard place

Developed market central banks are nearing the end of their tightening cycles.1 For now, market consensus points to a mild contraction in the US in late 2023 and slow growth in developed markets.

Demystifying Debt video series

Metrics Credit Partners have published a new 'Demystifying Debt' video series of ten short (2-minute) clips seeking to debunk common myths about investing in private debt.

The relevance of gold for Australian Self-Managed Super Funds

Gold, in Australian dollars, delivered positive returns in 2022 and this has continued so far in 2023. It has attracted attention: not only have global central banks continued to buy gold, but Australia’s sovereign wealth fund has also added gold to its portfolio.

The Real Decarbonisers – Why you need to focus on avoided emissions

Simply screening out companies with high reported emissions risks underestimating the true impact the companies are making toward the decarbonisation ambitions of the world. By considering avoided emissions, we can gain a more complete understanding of a company’s true impact on the environment.

Mid-year 2023 global outlook: Time to engage more fully

For this mid-year outlook, the theme continues to be the attractiveness of investments beyond cash including fixed income, equities and alternatives.

Price effects during dividend periods: alpha, cash flow and tax

An investigation into the pervasive but misunderstood price effects of stocks in the period surrounding their dividend payments, observing a positive excess return from tilting towards dividend paying stocks in the month (or slightly longer) prior to the ex-dividend date.

Green steel

The steel industry is one of the largest contributors to global carbon emissions. The main challenge in producing green steel is cost. This report focuses on the process to produce green steel, breaking down the costs and technology used.

Australian banks, a matter of trust

Australian financial regulators currently hold a sanguine outlook for the Australian banking system. This White Paper outlines Antipodes’ thesis on why Australian bank shareholders are vulnerable.

The road to recovery (revisited)

Equal weight allocation outperforms market capitalisation indices because it consistently gives greater exposure to smaller stocks, which tend to outperform larger ones. VanEck has released its new findings capturing the recovery subsequent to the COVID-19 falls in this report.

Global small-caps: An overlooked opportunity

New research shows global small-caps, which are typically underrepresented in Australian investment portfolios, have outperformed international large- and mid-caps as well as Australian small-caps over the long term.

Add banking stress to rising rates and recession may be baked in

The Fed appears to be staying the course on its rate-hiking path, putting banks and other interest-rate sensitive sectors under further strain. These rate hikes plus recent bank failures suggest recession is likely baked into the mix.

Testing infrastructure’s resilience amid heightened uncertainties

ClearBridge Investments, part of Franklin Templeton, has tested the short- and long-term return profiles of infrastructure against a backdrop of changing macroeconomic factors, examining infrastructure’s strength in different inflation, GDP growth and bond yield scenarios.

Value investing myths, debunked

As the growth versus value debate intensifies, this report from Orbis seeks to debunk three oft-repeated myths about value investing with hard data and considered analysis.

How Australia Retires

Vanguard’s inaugural "How Australia Retires" study found that high retirement confidence is not necessarily dependent on age or income, but rather on having a plan.

Another banking crisis – how are REITs positioned?

The recent failure of several regional US banks and Credit Suisse has triggered concerns about the impacts for commercial real estate (CRE) markets as, to varying degrees, these financial institutions are an important source of finance.

Global investment outlook: this isn’t 2008

Today’s banking ‘crisis’ is far less severe than 2008, and it’s not systemic. Indeed, the quality of overall bank assets and capital ratios are dramatically better. Central banks are now coordinating globally to offer banks daily access to the capital they need to operate smoothly.

Stock story: Mastercard

Mastercard's global penetration of nearly 100 million merchants and 3.1 billion cards creates a seamless and ubiquitous payments experience that is ‘priceless’ to network participants, making it extremely valuable to shareholders.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 2Q23

In 2023, investors will face a challenge finding a balance between lower interest rates and a deteriorating economy. Bank failures will lead to tighter lending conditions, and watch exposure to commercial real estate.

Has artificial intelligence reached a commercial tipping point?

While AI is likely on the brink of causing tectonic shifts across many companies and industries, as investors, it is vital to cut through current noise to analyse developments in the sector and the opportunities that could arise.

The great impasse

As long-term rate expectations fall while recessionary risks increase investors should focus on liquidity, strong balance sheets and cash flow, and avoid highly volatile and speculative assets according to VanEck’s latest quarterly economic outlook.

Reporting season wrap: Looking over the edge

As we stand on the edge of a mortgage rate cliff and a potential Australian recession, how did these important market developments impact the shape of company results in Australia’s February 2023 company reporting season?

The physical office in a hybrid world

The trend towards hybrid working was already in motion prior to the pandemic, but has been accelerated and solidified by it, establishing it as the norm. For informed investors, filling the supply gap by providing office space suitable for modern occupation brings performance opportunity.

Fixed Income's 2022 ESG engagement report

This report shares details and results of the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team's engagement with bond issuers during the calendar year of 2022 to better understand each other’s interests, ambitions, and risks.

A framework for navigating uncertainty: high-quality bonds return to traditional role

Uncertainty over inflation and central bank policy is likely to remain high during 2023 with a wide range of possible outcomes for investment returns. This analysis points to one clear implication: the importance of investing in fixed income.

Everything you need to know about super contributions in FY23

Superannuation comes with some great tax breaks and like anything with great tax concessions, there are rules to follow. In this guide, we run through some of the key contribution rules and some handy tips about how to make the most of them.

Fixed income is attractive, but beware of 'fake' yield

Soaring policy rates have made cash a competitive asset again, prompting an overdue de-rating of risk assets. But just because yields are higher, that doesn’t mean risk is lower.

Why AI is todays most important investment theme

Not only is software eating the world, but it is becoming a lot smarter at an accelerating rate and will continue to do so. Why? Because of AI – and more specifically, machine learning (ML), the most common and practically applicable subset of AI today.

The story of Australia and New Zealand’s non-bank sector

Non-banks in Australia and New Zealand have enjoyed record growth over the past decade, but can this success be sustained under new market conditions? Perpetual and the Australian Securitisation Forum have collaborated to look at the reasons for the growth of non-banks as well as the sector’s opportunities and challenges for future growth.

Innovation Insights Quarterly Q1 Jan 2023

In their latest Innovation insights, Franklin Equity Group examines five advancements they found interesting this quarter from renewables accessing deeper waters to artificial intelligence in the digital realm.

New life, old life

Most older Australians are not actively planning for the final chapters of their working life. While many find the time to plan the lifestyle and financial aspects of their future retirement, too few take positive action to improve the circumstances of the inevitable wind-down phase of their working lives.

Is private debt ready for recession?

As we have seen in 2022, uncertainty has weighed heavily on markets and generated extreme volatility across asset classes. As the market headwinds shift from soaring inflation and rising interest rates to recession fears, investors need to rethink their allocations as we enter uncharted territory.

2023 Portfolio Compass: Australian Equities

Global markets were dragged down in 2022 by the trifactor of multi-decade high inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s COVID-zero policy. While almost every major asset class took a sizeable hit last year, Australian equities presented a different story.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q23

Last year saw a historic surge in inflation and interest rates, and a corresponding reset in financial asset valuations. At the start of 2023, we believe peak inflation has passed, and anticipate a gradual reduction in pricing pressures over the year.

BondAdviser Market Review December 2022

The BondAdviser Market Review is an end of month report designed to give users information on events, corporate actions, news and announcements which are current in our strategic thinking plus tactical opportunities as they arise.

The polarisation of the office market

Views on the short and long term changes expected in occupier demand for office space as ESG compliance and hybrid working specifications become key requirements, and how this influences the market dynamic and opportunities for investors.

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An important Foxtel announcement...

News Corp's plans to sell Foxtel are surprising in that streaming assets Kayo, Binge and Hubbl look likely to go with it. This and recent events in the US show the bind that legacy TV businesses find themselves in.

Warren Buffett changes his mind at age 93

This month, Buffett made waves by revealing he’d sold almost 50% of his shares in Apple in the second quarter. The sale not only shows that Buffett has changed his mind on the stock but remains at the peak of his powers.

Wealth transfer isn't just about 'saving it up and passing it on'

We’ve seen how the transfer of wealth can work well, with inherited wealth helping families grow and thrive for generations, as well as how things can go horribly wrong. Here are tips on how to get it right.

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