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21 January 2025
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Unlike their peers in the US and UK, policy makers in Australia haven't faced a bond market rebellion in recent times. This could change if current levels of issuance at the state and territory level continue.
There's nothing wrong with budget deficits if they are appropriately set for a desired economic outcome. But it does require a breakaway from dogmatic economic thought that seems rife among economists and politicians.
The response to inflation in advanced economies has seen rapid interest rate rises, but the money supply has remained elevated, particularly in Australia. Should the RBA be doing more to reduce its balance sheet?
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
From thousands of comments received about future policies for Australia, we have selected 70 highlights showing a diversity of views, illustrating the challenges as Treasurer Chalmers heads to his first Budget.
Over 800 responses and thousands of comments is great feedback. Readers of Firstlinks hold strong opinions on gas, taxes, inflation, child care and cost-of-living concessions, and now the Governor is buying in.
The first Labor Budget in a decade comes at a critical time for the new government, facing policy decisions on many fronts. Take our Reader Survey on these six questions and let us know what you would do.
Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.
With bond rates and Reserve Bank actions driving equity markets and inflationary expectations, it pays to understand what is really happening in both central bank and commercial bank balance sheets.
No option removes the existential threats to the UK stirred by its EU departure. What started in 2016 as enough voters defying the odds has left the UK dangling politically and economically amid a pandemic.
Ultra low interest rates could be counterproductive for economic growth. Policymakers need to rely less on monetary stimulus and be mindful of the side effects they are creating, especially for retirees and savers.
Stocks are vulnerable if interest rates rise much faster than expected on inflation concerns. What is the probability of this heightened risk and what are the consequences for portfolios?
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.