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21 January 2025
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The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The Coalition is continuing to push for superannuation to be used for housing deposits. It's a bad idea on several fronts, including that it would inevitably push up already expensive housing prices.
Our housing system isn't working, with prices and rents growing faster than wages, longer public housing waiting lists and more people are experiencing homelessness. Here are five ways to ease the crisis.
The current difficulties confronting housing policy partially stem from an explosion of mortgage debt. We've engineered a price for housing that will cause a severe problem for future generations – if it isn't addressed.
Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.
Increasing density, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, hasn’t worked as house prices continue to climb. Calls to double down on this strategy are misplaced and new solutions are needed to tackle housing affordability.
In the six months of my battle with brain cancer, one part of financial markets has fascinated me, and it’s probably not what you think. What's led the pages of my reading is real estate, especially residential.
Baby boomers will account for a third of population growth between 2024 and 2029, making this generation the biggest age-related growth sector over this period. They will shape the housing market with their unique preferences.
By our estimate, housing is 40% overvalued, making it one of the world's priciest assets and even more expensive than the 'Magnificent Seven' US tech stocks. That doesn't bode well for future returns from property.
Shared equity mortgages, as a solution to Australia’s housing affordability problem, have been talked about for years, but it's been left to governments to develop initiatives in this area. This year, things changed.
Despite recent residential property price falls, housing affordability is getting worse, not better, driven by rising interest rates. Our numbers suggest further property price declines will be difficult to avoid.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.