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22 December 2024

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Sponsor: Orbis Investments

1-35 out of 35 results.

Is FOMO overruling investment basics?

Four years ago, we introduced our 'bubbles' chart to show how the market had become concentrated in one type of stock and one view of the future. This looks at what, if anything, has changed, and what it means for investors.

Gold: trustless, rustless, shiny, and tiny

While gold can create divisive views - Buffett called it a valueless pet rock - this assesses its place in portfolios from a supply-demand standpoint and versus currencies. Both angles suggest some exposure to gold is prudent.

Emerging market equities are ripe with opportunity

Emerging markets offer compelling value compared to history and the stretched valuations of developed market equities. Investors can benefit from three big tailwinds, but only if they are selective.

The power of dividends

In an era where growth companies dominate and the likes of Nvidia grab all of the attention, dividend paying stocks are flying under the radar. Some of these stocks offer compelling prospective returns.

Are expectations for the Magnificent Seven too high?

Valuations for the Magnificent Seven stocks are baking in extraordinary growth over the next decade. History shows that delivering on high growth expectations is difficult, but will this time prove different?

Passive investors exposed to bubbliest market segment

Thanks to the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, global passive investors thrashed most active peers in 2023. But there's a hitch: these investors' portfolios are now concentrated in the most overvalued segment of the market.

Preparing for next decade's market winners

Investors are overexposed to recent winners, namely large cap, growth stocks. As a whole, these stocks are exceptionally expensive, which means investors may need to switch strategies to outperform going forward.

Is there still value in high dividend-yielding companies?

After a hiatus last year, growth stocks are back in vogue as investors search for the 'next big thing'. That makes today's market environment unusually rich in attractive, high dividend-yielding companies.

From stockmarket boom to stockpicker’s opportunity

Given the last decade delivered phenomenal stockmarket returns, investors should expect the next decade to prove more challenging. However, 'value' stocks are cheap, providing compelling opportunities for contrarian investors.

Why an active fund should not perform like its benchmark

Every fund is measured against a benchmark, but active managers earn their fees by taking strong views contrary to an index. It requires fortitude in the short term as interviews with Orbis and Allan Gray show.

Passive investing has risks too

Last year was rough for investors, especially where equity and bond portfolios were not as diversified as they thought. Spreading the risk sounds simple but watch that funds are not all doing the same thing.

Defining contrarianism in three stocks

Contrarian investing is not about doing the opposite to everyone else no matter what, it’s having courage in your convictions in a disciplined investment process. Here are examples of contrarian investing in practice.

What to do about our distorted relationship with money

We’re in a rare moment in history where the term premium has been negative for a number of years.  History suggests that won't last, and here are the best ways to position your portfolio to benefit from the change.

Firstlinks Interview Series - bonus eBook

A collection of interviews with financial markets experts on investing, superannuation, retirement and other topical issues, as published by Firstlinks over 2021 and 2022.

Four principles for choosing the right active manager

Investors face a difficult decision when choosing their fund managers. Here's a guide for how they can find active managers with sustainable long-term advantages who can help make a difference to their portfolios.

Investors don't forecast well, and that's good news

All the evidence suggests investors can't forecast well. While that might appear to be bad news, if you dig a little deeper, it can create opportunities for those investors that are prepared to think differently.

Investment opportunities in the global energy crunch

Investment in the energy sector has dropped significantly but demand continues to rise. Higher prices normally trigger more spending and increased supply. If this is not the case, it creates investment opportunities.

Time for value as ‘promise generators’ fail to deliver

A $28 billion global manager still sees far more potential in value than growth stocks, believes energy stocks are undervalued including an Australian company, and describes the need for resilience in investing.

Why are some companies vulnerable in 2022?

Most analysts are blaming inflation, rising rates and the threat of war for the current market weakness, but many companies were vulnerable well before these concerns as a result of stretched valuations.

Why starting points matter

There have been few times in the past 140 years when investors were willing to pay for more than 30 years’ worth of earnings, yet here we are around 40. This starting point does not augur well for future returns.

Investing in Japan: ready for an Olympic revival?

All eyes are on Japan and the opportunity to win for competing athletes. After disappointing investors for many years, Japan is also in focus for its value, diversification and the safe haven status of its currency.

Is crypto a currency or a collectible?

Cryptocurrencies have created the perfect recipe to encourage speculation with the most important ingredient for a bubble to form being something new and shiny to attract investor attention. What's it really worth?

You think you're passive but are you really concentrating?

Rules of thumb often oversimplify things. While it looks like an index or passive portfolio spreads risks across the market, it is surprising how concentrated indexes have become, leaving investors with sector bets.

Graeme Shaw on why investing is at a pivotal moment

Company profits have not improved for many years but higher valuations have been driven by falling rates and excess liquidity. Conditions do not suit a value and contrarian manager but here are some opportunities.

Emerging markets: Should I stay or should I go?

For long-term investors, the most important factor driving returns is the price paid to acquire a stock. Emerging Markets stocks exhibit favourable valuations on both an absolute and relative basis.

The 'Heady Hundred' case for unglamorous growth

  Checking global stocks with higher prices than the FANGAM stocks but weaker margins and growth identified almost 100 companies. Astonishingly, the ‘Heady Hundred’ are valued at over US$3 trillion.

Do long-term investors need to care about the ‘next big thing’?

When we look back five years from now, which companies will we regret not having bought at today’s prices? The next opportunities come from focusing on the long term, not the next few months.

Dispelling the disruption myth

We tend to call any change a 'disruption', but the vast majority of so-called disruptive technologies are variations on a theme. Many innovations are really high-risk, low-probability investments.

How much will you risk to feel comfortable?

The market is asking how much are you willing to pay to feel safe, and the answer is: a lot. Perhaps a better question to ask is: how much are you risking in your quest to feel comfortable?

The flaw in 'value' index funds

When researchers identified the benefits of investing in 'value', index providers and asset managers created products to harness the 'value' factor. But is the construction of the index correct?

Charles Dalziell on life as a contrarian investor

How does a style that relies on investing in stocks the market dislikes sustain itself over time, when inevitably investors go through difficult markets until the value is realised? It’s not an easy way to run a fund manager.

What game is your fund manager playing?

Investors do not ask enough questions of their fund managers before they commit money. It's worth at least knowing whether a long-term view is taken rather than the easier road of jumping in and out of markets.

Is 'shaken and stirred' coming? The risky business of bonds

Bonds have performed well for most of the last 30 years with a tailwind of easing liquidity, but the current high prices makes them vulnerable to losing their protective qualities.

Should you be a value or growth investor?

The idea that stocks should be divided into growth and yield categories diverts us from fundamentals. Intrinsic value eventually manifests in higher cash flow, whether or not share price appreciation anticipates it.

Why stock selection beats macro forecasting

Macro trends are almost impossible to forecast, and picking undervalued shares with an eye to the long term is a better way. But often, stock selection requires resilience in the face of criticism.

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Vale Graham Hand

It’s with heavy hearts that we announce Firstlinks’ co-founder and former Managing Editor, Graham Hand, has died aged 66. Graham was a legendary figure in the finance industry and here are three tributes to him.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

Taxpayers betrayed by Future Fund debacle

The Future Fund's original purpose was to meet the unfunded liabilities of Commonwealth defined benefit schemes. These liabilities have ballooned to an estimated $290 billion and taxpayers continue to be treated like fools.

Australia’s shameful super gap

ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.

Looking beyond banks for dividend income

The Big Four banks have had an extraordinary run and it’s left income investors with a conundrum: to stick with them even though they now offer relatively low dividend yields and limited growth prospects or to look elsewhere.

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